Epidemic Malaria Dynamics in Eastern Africa Highlands: The Role of Climate Change and Human Population Growth

During the last two decades, researchers have suggested that increase of malaria incidence rate in tea plantations Kericho district Kenya was driven by climate change. Critics others variables could be involved burden, such as HIV and human population size. Population ecologists developed a simple framework which helps to explore contributions endogenous (density-dependency) exogenous processes on dynamics. Both may operate determine dynamic behavior particular through time. Briefly, density-dependency (endogenous process) occurs when per capita growth (R) is determined its previous sizes. An process some variable affects another but not affected changes it causes. In this study we re-explore dynamics taking into account rate, rural size, temperature rainfall. We found showed signs negative between R infectious class. there weak evidence support change hypothesis size interact positively force models parameters explaining positive trend observed at from 1979 2002.